Policy strengthens again: the wind direction of corn is turning around

The current corn market still has a strong overall atmosphere, and grain holders have a clear attitude towards price reduction - they do not accept it. But there are still many people who choose to ship at high prices. Yesterday, the arrival of goods in Shandong rose sharply, and some companies with sharp price increases began to see a slight decline. However, there has been a long lost large-scale rise in the Northeast region, and the main driving force behind it is the official expansion of acquisitions. According to the new announcement, the original storage may involve North China and the Huang Huai region. Can the corn market take advantage of this to see new changes!

First of all, we must give a suggestion to the bosses in the Northeast region who hold wet grain or ground grain. After rain and snow, there will be a rebound, and there is no need to say more about what Kaihua means in Northeast China. If the storage conditions are average, it is recommended to ship as soon as possible. According to the latest statistics, 10-20% of the grain sources in Northeast China are at risk of Kaihua, and the price of Northeast wet grain may enter a period of oscillation. Fortunately, with the continued efforts of policies, it will greatly limit the downward space of corn prices. At least in the short term, there is still some room for rise in Northeast grain. Bosses who have no problem with storage can continue to hold onto the grain and wait. Bosses who are not excessively large should ship in batches!

According to the latest statistical data, as of now, China Grain Reserves Corporation has set up more than 400 purchasing points in the main corn producing areas. Since late February, the pace of local grain sales has accelerated, and the surplus grain in the market is continuously decreasing. The risk of concentrated volume impact on the market is constantly decreasing (note whether it is decreasing or disappearing). At present, the bullish mentality of grassroots grain farmers is higher than that of channel traders, which is also the main reason for the influx of trendy grains into the market in the local area. In addition, the enthusiasm of channel traders to purchase has increased recently, but it must be said that now is not a good time, and the risk and return are not proportional!

From the current supply perspective, whether it is Northeast China, North China, or Shandong, the overall supply is showing a tight state. In addition, with the addition of feed companies, the wait-and-see attitude of deep processing enterprises has begun to decrease. Coupled with policy support, it is not difficult to understand why grain holders are constantly raising their psychological expectations for corn prices. However, it should be reminded that although the official policy cannot be launched in March and April, the prerequisite is that prices do not rise too crazily. It should be noted that the official inventory of grain sources is enough to suppress the entire corn supply market. In addition, do not underestimate the surplus grain in the market, including not only 2024 grain sources but also higher ones. At the same time, the attention of southern enterprises is beginning to shift to wheat substitution. It also has a certain impact on corn!

From a demand perspective, overall demand has been on the rise since the Spring Festival. Currently, orders from deep processing enterprises have recovered, and the operating rate has increased (the average operating rate of the corn starch industry is 63.52%). In terms of feed, there has also been a certain increase after the year, but with the continuous rise in corn prices, the cost-effectiveness of corn is decreasing. This month, we need to pay more attention to the purchasing direction of feed enterprises!

Summary: The price trend of corn is influenced by multiple factors, and fluctuations may occur in an instant. Short term attention to weather, pace of grain sales, and international attention to the trade situation between China and the United States, whether in Northeast China, Shandong, or North China, the current trend is mainly stable, moderate, and strong. Although fluctuations are inevitable, there is still some guarantee before fully restoring market purchasing and sales. However, it is important to be blindly optimistic about the rising trend of corn and choose a reasonable way to sell our grain sources! In the coming period, while focusing on policies, we also need to pay attention to the weather changes in the Northeast region. The key is whether there will be a one-time collection and storage, and secondly, whether the official will adjust the import plan and auction release intensity. Regarding the mid to long term trend of corn, the editor never denies that there will be a market for corn in the medium to long term. This is due to the lack of hope for a significant increase before March. The editor believes that the opportunity for corn is in the months of June to September. The main reason for this judgment is that the progress of grain sales this year is relatively fast, and there may be temporary supply shortages in the later stage. Although it is difficult to reproduce the peak, it will at least be 100-200 yuan/ton higher than the current price!

With the rise in corn prices, the situation of wheat falling back has also come to an end. As we mentioned a few days ago, it is certain that wheat will rise after rain and snow. After all, a rain and snow event can directly "wipe out" the possible clustered sales of grain. Like corn, there is still some support for wheat after the policy festival, the most representative of which is the procurement of China National Grain Reserves Corporation. In addition, the inventory of enterprises continues to be consumed after the festival, and some medium and large enterprises continue to consume raw grains. The phenomenon of urgent need replenishment has increased. Especially, there is a certain "buying up" operation in the market, which is a kind of "protection" for wheat! For the current situation, the editor suggests the following:

1. The surplus grain in the wheat market is not as much as everyone thinks. Although it cannot be said to have bottomed out, the overall threat is not significant anymore. There may be a small peak in grain sales at certain stages, but the duration is bound to be short

2. The recent frequent official procurement basically indicates the direction of the policy, and raising wheat prices will be the mainstream for at least the next period of time! According to the latest announcement, the official is still stabilizing the wheat market, and coupled with the upward adjustment of the wheat palletizing price this year, it is expected that there is still some room for wheat to rise!

Additionally, it should be noted that after entering this month, the wheat market may experience a relatively "fragmented" situation, indicating that the official may initiate a round of production. After all, preparations need to be made in advance for new wheat to enter the market, and the time is likely to be in the latter half of the month or the end of the month. Secondly, with the rise of wheat prices, the enthusiasm of flour milling enterprises to undertake the project will weaken. After all, it is not the peak season for flour demand at present, and it is not ruled out that there may be overcapacity in enterprises. Even if wheat is sold at a regular price for a long time, the surplus grain in the market is higher than expected by everyone!

Summary: After entering this month, wheat prices are likely to show strong fluctuations, and traders need to control the timing of shipments reasonably. The support points behind the rise in wheat prices are also easy to understand. Firstly, grain holders have entered a state of reluctance to sell, which can also be understood as a shortage of surplus grain in the market. People have begun to have certain expectations for wheat prices. In addition, the market demand brought by the opening of various universities has increased the operating rate of flour milling enterprises. From the recent procurement of China National Grain Reserves Corporation, the official attitude is more obvious, but wheat still does not have the conditions for a sharp rise and it is difficult to see "exceedance" in the price range of 1.2-1.25 yuan/jin! This month is coming to an end again, and in order for wheat to continue its upward trend, in addition to policies and volume increases, we also need to focus on changes in corn prices!